Energy in Gelderland’s climate opportunities map

The challenge in energy

The energy domain covers large-scale electricity generation and energy infrastructure. Since the coal- and biomass-fired power plant in Nijmegen was demolished in 2015, the Province of Gelderland has had no coal or gas power stations generating electricity. However, Gelderland still uses substantial amounts of energy originating from coal- or gas-fired plants elsewhere. The region is therefore a net importer of electricity, and is responsible for emissions that occur outside its own borders.

Within the RES regions, the focus is on large-scale local generation of renewable electricity. This will shift electricity use away from imports from outside the region towards local generation for local demand. The grid does not yet appear able to absorb the sharp increase in electricity, on both the demand and supply side; grid congestion is rising, driven in particular by the strong growth of solar power. As a result, the energy domain becomes an ‘enabler’ for the other domains: more renewable generation also greens the electricity used by the built environment, mobility and industry.

Potential by solution

A total of seven solutions were explored for the energy domain. Together, they have the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions by between 3.3 and 5.1 Mt in 2030. The table below sets out the reduction potential per solution for both scenarios; an explanation of each solution follows below.

Solar on roofs

Solar on roofs is the single largest solution: 1,306 kt CO₂-eq in the Estimate scenario and 1,632 kt in the Ambitious scenario. The designated areas are not always known from the RES plans, but there is substantial potential for rooftop solar on both business parks and government buildings. In the Ambitious scenario, around 500 hectares are installed by 2025, around 1,000 hectares by 2028 and around 1,550 hectares in total by 2030, on the roofs of the roughly 8,000 hectares in Gelderland designated as business parks. Small-scale generation under 15 kWp, such as on the roofs of private homes, falls outside this solution.

Onshore wind

Onshore wind delivers 885 kt CO₂-eq in the Estimate scenario and 1,385 kt in the Ambitious scenario. In the Ambitious scenario, this involves around 25 wind turbines (5.6 MW) by 2025, 120 by 2028 and around 200 in total by 2030. Combined with 9,000 hectares of agricultural land, energy can be produced; this is less than 5% of the agricultural land available in the province. Wind farms and solar fields generate resistance; it is crucial to make directly affected residents co-owners by letting them share in the proceeds. To achieve results by 2030, most permits need to be granted by the end of 2025.

Ground-mounted solar

Ground-mounted solar delivers 855 kt CO₂-eq in the Estimate scenario and 1,069 kt in the Ambitious scenario. In the Ambitious scenario, around 600 hectares of solar parks are installed by 2025, around 1,200 hectares by 2028 and around 1,730 hectares in total by 2030. Combining water, nature and solar energy improves cooling, and initiating biodiversity programmes on land around large-scale wind and solar parks increases ecological value.

Nuclear energy

Nuclear energy contributes nothing in the Estimate scenario and 614 kt CO₂-eq in the Ambitious scenario: by 2030, a total of one SMR is built with 520 MW thermal and 200 MW electrical capacity. Nuclear energy could form part of the energy mix, but only if the cost approaches that of the solar-wind-storage system. Because of safety considerations and large capital expenditure, this is uncertain; it is also an irreversible choice with a very long lead time, including in relation to future decommissioning.

Deep geothermal

Deep geothermal delivers 75 kt CO₂-eq in the Estimate scenario and 151 kt in the Ambitious scenario. In the Ambitious scenario, geothermal energy is realised at 1 location by 2026, 3 locations by 2028 and 6 locations by 2030, averaging 261 TJ per location. Geothermal energy still offers considerable room for development, both for extracting heat and for (seasonal) storage.

Aquathermal energy

Aquathermal energy delivers 75 kt CO₂-eq in the Estimate scenario and 150 kt in the Ambitious scenario. In the Ambitious scenario, around 20,000 homes per year are connected to a heat network via aquathermal energy from 2026 onwards, reaching 100,000 homes by 2030. Heat demand accounts for a significant share of energy use; aquathermal energy uses heat extracted from surface water.

Spreading energy demand

Spreading energy demand delivers 71 kt CO₂-eq in the Estimate scenario and 143 kt in the Ambitious scenario. In the Ambitious scenario, the share of flexibly consumed electricity grows by around 1.4% per year, reaching 10% of electricity consumption by 2030. Grid flexibility can deliver a significant reduction in emissions without expanding the grid: flexible consumption of up to 30% is roughly equivalent to the potential impact of a nuclear power plant. Households and businesses can act on demand response now, since energy contracts with near-live energy prices are already available.

Two scenarios

The reduction potential has been calculated across two scenarios. The Estimate scenario includes all expected avoided emissions achievable through active policy or recent market developments. The Ambitious scenario adds further ambition on top of this, for example because this is considered achievable in other regions or by accelerating current policy. In total, a reduction potential of between 3,267 and 5,143 kt CO₂-eq was explored, a difference of 1,876 kt.

Method and sources

The analysis follows the Drawdown methodology (Project Drawdown), applied to Gelderland’s energy emissions. Reduction and sequestration potential were calculated per solution in conservative and progressive scenarios, based on public datasets, sector benchmarks and Gelderland’s climate policy. The full assumptions, system boundaries and source references are set out in the PDF.