Agriculture and land use in Gelderland’s climate opportunities map

The challenge in agriculture and land use

Around 18% of total global greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to agriculture and land use. In the Province of Gelderland, roughly 45% of the surface area consists of agricultural land, which creates substantial potential for change, in favour of greenhouse gas reduction and sequestration.

The Province of Gelderland faces the challenge of reducing greenhouse gases (CO₂ equivalents) by 55% relative to the 1990 baseline: from 23.6 Mt CO₂-eq in 1990 to 10.6 Mt in 2030. Current emissions stand at 18.1 Mt CO₂-eq. Within the agriculture and land-use domain, a downward trend has been visible since 1990, with a large share of the reduction coming from dairy farming.

The solutions at a glance

The Estimate scenario includes all expected emission reductions that can either be achieved through active policy or seem feasible given recent market developments. The Ambitious scenario adds further ambitions on top of this. The climate solutions with the greatest potential are manure digestion and green gas, plant-rich diets and feed transition; these solutions focus mainly on a more efficient food system. An explanation of each solution follows below the overview table.

Manure digestion and green gas

Manure digestion and green gas has the largest reduction potential within the more efficient food system: 109 kt CO₂-eq in the Estimate scenario and 327 kt in the Ambitious scenario in 2030. This involves an average of 3 to 10 digestion plants added per year, around 22 to 66 plants in total by 2030, with processing capacity rising to 2.75 million tonnes in the Ambitious scenario.

With more manure digestion and green gas, Gelderland agriculture supplies new fuels for the energy transition. Legal issues around permits and fraud at digestion plants require attention to keep the solution viable. In the Regenerative scenario, this potential falls by 163 kt due to a shift in land use towards less livestock.

Plant-rich diets

The transition to a more plant-rich diet delivers 30 kt CO₂-eq reduction in the Estimate scenario and 319 kt in the Ambitious scenario. In the Ambitious scenario, the number of farmed livestock in Gelderland falls by around 46% through to 2030, calculated on the basis of reduced meat consumption according to the EAT-Lancet guidelines.

The transition offers opportunities for annual and perennial arable farming such as food forests and strip cropping; more farmers, rather than fewer, are likely to be needed. Local supply chains can strengthen demand for organic and regenerative products, which improves health and strengthens social ties.

Feed transition

Feed transition lowers livestock emissions through feed supplements that reduce methane emissions from cows: 112 kt CO₂-eq reduction in the Estimate scenario and 305 kt in the Ambitious scenario. By 2030, 30% to 55% of cows in Gelderland receive these supplements, equivalent to 350 to 468 tonnes of supplement per year.

In the Regenerative scenario, this potential falls by 153 kt because there are fewer cattle.

Afforestation and silvopasture

Afforestation sequesters carbon: 17 kt CO₂-eq in the Estimate scenario and 100 kt in the Ambitious scenario. In the Ambitious scenario, 10,000 hectares of new forest are planted by 2030, as nature forest or for silvopasture, rising from around 2,800 hectares in 2025 to 7,000 hectares in 2028.

Afforestation not only sequesters carbon but also strengthens biodiversity and the ecosystem. In the Regenerative scenario, a further 125 kt of sequestration is added. Hedgerows instead of fences have a strongly positive effect on biodiversity.

Reducing food waste

Reducing food waste delivers 53 kt CO₂-eq reduction in the Estimate scenario and 72 kt in the Ambitious scenario, and is low-hanging fruit at a relatively low cost per kt CO₂. Food waste falls from 33.1 kg per person per year in 2022 to 24.6 kg in the Estimate scenario and 21.7 kg in the Ambitious scenario by 2030.

Regenerative agriculture

Regenerative agriculture has a modest direct potential in the Estimate and Ambitious scenarios (0.6 to 1.5 kt reduction and 1.6 to 6.5 kt sequestration), but becomes decisive in the Regenerative scenario. The area grows to 18,944 hectares by 2030, an increase of 10,838 hectares.

Fibre crops such as flax, hemp and elephant grass supply biobased construction materials for industry and the built environment, both structurally and as insulation; farmers thereby become raw-material suppliers for the circular economy. Regenerative and nature-inclusive agriculture requires careful farm management and more careful use of soil and land.

Three scenarios

The analysis models three scenarios. Estimate contains the reductions that seem feasible with current policy or recent market developments. Ambitious adds further ambitions, for example an acceleration of existing policy. Regenerative adds further steps on top of that within agriculture, towards green construction materials from crops and a reduction in livestock numbers.

Method and sources

The analysis follows the Drawdown methodology (Project Drawdown), applied to Gelderland’s agriculture and land-use emissions. Reduction and sequestration potential were calculated per solution in the Estimate, Ambitious and Regenerative scenarios, based on public datasets, sector benchmarks and Gelderland’s climate policy. The full assumptions, system boundaries and source references are set out in the PDF.