Mobility in Gelderland’s climate opportunities map

The challenge in mobility

The Province of Gelderland faces the challenge of reducing greenhouse gases by 55% relative to the 1990 baseline; current emissions stand at 18.1 Mt CO₂-eq, of which at least 7.5 Mt must be reduced. Mobility accounts for around 4.7 Mt per year of this. By far the largest share — roughly 90% — comes from road traffic exhaust; mobile machinery follows at just over 5%.

The number of kilometres travelled by passenger and freight transport has risen by 10% over ten years, with a 15% increase in road-network emissions over the past 20 years. Gelderland also has a strong position in the logistics sector and above-average travel distances. Reducing emissions requires a broad set of solutions; this needs to go further than simply replacing fuel-powered vehicles with zero-emission vehicles.

Solutions in brief

Four promising clusters were modelled within the mobility domain. Electrification delivers the largest potential, but the solutions reinforce each other: zero-emission zones accelerate electrification, smarter transport lowers total demand, and cycling replaces short car trips. The reduction shown is the range between the Estimate and Ambitious scenarios; mobility has no sequestration potential. A closer breakdown of each solution follows below.

Zero-emission vehicles

The key starting point is the overall share of zero-emission vehicles in Gelderland. The total number of cars is 1,067,820, and the electric share currently stands at just over 8%. In the Estimate scenario, this grows to 20% by 2030; in the Ambitious scenario, to 46%. The reduction per replaced vehicle is around 64% (0.124 kg CO₂-eq per vehicle-kilometre, well-to-wheel), rising to more than 80% as the 2030 energy transition targets are met and cars are charged with cleaner electricity.

Reduction potential: 253 kt (Estimate) to 1,386 kt (Ambitious) CO₂-eq per year in 2030 — the largest single mobility solution.

Zero-emission zones

Zero-emission zones are being introduced in the province’s four largest cities: Apeldoorn, Nijmegen, Ede and Arnhem. In the Estimate scenario, these are small zones in the inner-city areas; in the Ambitious scenario, the surrounding neighbourhoods are added. Zero-emission zones mainly affect passenger transport, but also the emissions of (heavy) commercial vehicles. The analysis is based on the average number of kilometres per resident, half of which is met through cleaner transport and half through less passenger transport.

Reduction potential: 152 kt (Estimate) to 608 kt (Ambitious) CO₂-eq per year — the second largest solution.

Smarter transport

Smarter transport covers a package of measures that can reduce emissions across a wide range of transport modes, based on the reduction potential from Gelderland’s climate plan: bundling flows, reducing trips in logistics, and Clean Energy Hubs for road transport and inland shipping. A province-wide network of hubs encourages travellers to travel smart and clean, by bike or public transport. In addition, the province is pursuing an employer approach, carrying out maintenance and management of provincial roads with a 55% CO₂ reduction, and supporting and strengthening community initiatives that contribute to reducing mobility emissions.

Reduction potential: 100 kt (Estimate) to 500 kt (Ambitious) CO₂-eq per year.

Cycling

The cycling solution consists both of growth in (electric) bicycles and the construction of cycling infrastructure that replaces car trips. The total number of electric bicycles grows to around 720,000 by 2030. For every e-bike sold, commuting by car decreases, and improved cycling infrastructure reduces the number of car-kilometres driven per person.

Reduction potential: 31 kt (Estimate) to 55 kt (Ambitious) CO₂-eq per year.

Two scenarios

In the Estimate scenario, all expected emission reductions are included that can either be achieved through active policy or are considered realistic given recent market developments. The Ambitious scenario adds further ambitions on top of this. The difference is substantial: from 536 to 2,549 kt CO₂-eq per year, driven mainly by a higher share of electric cars and wider zero-emission zones.

Transition outlook and transformation

The mobility transition is closely tied to the energy transition: sustainably generated electricity makes zero-emission transport possible, while electric vehicles also form a buffer for the energy system by absorbing peaks and troughs in generation. A further accelerator lies in exponentially falling battery prices and self-driving shared vehicles: once these break through, the price per kilometre will fall well below that of a private car, enabling more mobility for less money and with far fewer cars.

Replacing vehicles alone is not enough. Because of the law of constant travel time and trips (the so-called BREVER law, an average of 73 minutes of travel per day) and the Jevons paradox, faster or cheaper mobility can actually increase total traffic. An integrated transition outlook with a diversity of solutions is therefore needed, one that takes health into account: as much as possible on foot within residential areas, and beyond that the bicycle, the train or a clean shared car.

Method and sources

The analysis follows the Drawdown methodology (Project Drawdown), applied to Gelderland’s mobility emissions. Reduction and sequestration potential were calculated per solution in conservative and progressive scenarios, based on public datasets, sector benchmarks and Gelderland’s climate policy. The full assumptions, system boundaries and source references are set out in the PDF.