The Gelderland vehicle fleet counts 1,067,820 passenger cars, of which just over 8% currently run on electricity. In the projection scenario that share grows to 20% by 2030, and in the ambitious scenario to 46%. Expressed in numbers, that comes to around 215,000 emission-free vehicles under the projection and around 500,000 under the ambitious variant.
This starting value sets the upper bound of the largest mobility solution: the higher the electric share climbs, the greater the emissions avoided each year. The gap between just over 8% today and 46% in the ambitious scenario explains why emission-free vehicles as a single solution can cut up to 1,386 kton CO₂-eq, while the projection stays at 253 kton. The size of the fleet makes clear that replacement alone is not enough: without a simultaneous fall in car kilometres, a considerable emission remainder persists. Source: Klimaatkansenkaart Gelderland, mobility sector analysis (New Economy).