30 SMART climate solutions for Utrecht up to 2030

From PSCA to 30 SMART solutions

In 2021 the Preliminary Climate Solutions Assessment (PSCA) mapped which climate solutions deliver the most for the Province of Utrecht. The opportunities map takes the next step: 30 solutions worked out in a SMART way, meaning specific, measurable, acceptable, realistic and time-bound. Of these, 19 come from the 2021 PSCA, 7 from Project Drawdown and 4 are mobility cluster solutions from the report by CE Delft and Goudappel.

For each solution the potential, a concrete target and an annual phasing towards 2030 have been determined, in a Baseline scenario (current and intended policy) and an Ambitious scenario (extra ambition). The map shows the Ambitious scenario.

How to read the map

The map reads from left to right. Each row is a solution; the columns show what that solution delivers and what it takes.

Five themes, 30 solutions

The 30 solutions are spread across five themes. Mobility accounts for the largest share of avoided emissions, followed by electricity and the built environment. Industry avoids the least, but stores the most carbon through building with timber.

Avoided and sequestered emissions in 2030, in ktonne CO₂-eq. Avoidance and sequestration are kept apart and do not add up. Totals: 5,835 ktonne avoided and 160 ktonne sequestered (Ambitious), 3,274 ktonne avoided and 80 ktonne sequestered (Baseline). Due to rounding, subtotals may differ slightly from the totals.

The five largest solutions on the map are cleaner mobility (697 ktonne), solar on land (601 ktonne), changing mobility (563 ktonne), zero-emission zones for mobility (ZE zones, 523 ktonne) and wind on land (416 ktonne).

The TOP 15 towards 2030

Fifteen solutions together cover the lion’s share of Utrecht’s potential. The ranking is led by mobility and electricity; building with timber combines avoidance with the largest sequestration on the map.

Market sizes for entrepreneurs

The SMART targets show how much work lies ahead in the province up to 2030, and so how large the market for companies can become. In the Ambitious scenario this means:

Targets from the theme reports, Ambitious scenario. The map itself rounds some of these numbers. These are scenario outcomes, not forecasts.

Province as an example

Alongside 30 opportunities for the region, the map looks at the Province of Utrecht as an organisation in its own right. Its operations emit around 5,724 tonnes of CO₂ a year (2019); the ambition is to fully reduce its own emissions (scope 1 and 2) by 2030, with energy-neutral real estate in 2035 and an energy-neutral organisation in 2040.

To live up to that exemplary role, 40 concrete steps have been worked out: 25 opportunities and 15 transition tips, ten of which can start immediately and fifteen in the short term. This report does not calculate a reduction potential and is therefore not part of the map’s totals. The province also has a national exemplary role with its internal CO₂ price of 875 euros per tonne, which weighs in on cost-benefit analyses.

Coherence and preconditions

The solutions do not stand alone. Some are preconditional: their realisation is crucial for the success of others. Mobility, for instance, is linked to spreading energy consumption and small rooftop solar installations, and themes reinforce one another through spatial planning. A focus matrix sets each solution’s potential against risk and price per tonne of CO₂-eq, making visible where the province can best start: with solutions that have high potential and low risk.

Method, scenarios and sources

The opportunities map follows the Drawdown methodology and builds on the 2021 PSCA. For each solution the total addressable potential in Utrecht has been calculated, each time in a Baseline scenario (current and intended policy plus market development) and an Ambitious scenario (extra ambition). According to the reports, current and intended policy avoids 26 to 44% in 2030. To reach the target of 49% or the ambition of 55%, the Ambitious scenario has to be achieved. All assumptions, system boundaries and sources per solution are set out in the theme reports, the methodological annex and the calculation model (in Dutch).

The map was commissioned by the Province of Utrecht, in the name of the Drawdown Europe Research Association (DERA), and carried out by New Economy B.V. with knowledge partner Climate Cleanup Foundation. Map design: jarr.nl.