The progressive scenario is the middle of three variants: half of all new construction in Gelderland executed in timber. It yields a reduction potential of 0.05 Mton CO₂-eq in 2030, between the two extremes of 0.02 Mton at a 20% share and 0.1 Mton at 100%.
Because Project Drawdown holds no fixed adoption scenarios for timber construction, three variants were calculated on the basis of the Gelderland Climate Plan 2021-2030, by the share of timber in new construction. The progressive scenario shows that a larger timber share yields almost proportionally more reduction, which makes a 20% share a realistic scope for action with room to scale further towards 2030. Source: Climate Action Recap Gelderland (built environment sector analysis), New Economy.